Chinwag: Mobile Metamorphosis Review...
26 February 2007
Chinwag Live: Mobile Metamorphosis
Back in February I attended a Chinwag event to discuss how the role of Mobile Marketing has changed over the previous year. I took a handful of notes that have been scribbled on a note that have never actually made it into my blog as I had originally planned. So, if these appear to be incomplete thoughts it is because at least a few months have passed since I wrote them.
The key takeaway from the event is this. Mobile Marketing hasn’t changed at all in a year – And definitely no metamorphosis has occurred. If we take in this in relation to current events ( as in July ’07 ) the biggest metamorphosis getting hype in the media is the launch of Apple’s iPhone.
Here are the bullet points:
- Operators are trying to shoe horn themselves into mobile content to recoup the loss of revenue from moving to flat rate mobile data.
- Quote: “Operator’s won’t abuse the consumer experience for a few schillings of ad revenue.”
- Mobile advertising banners have a better click-through than web banners.
- The majority of mobile search is for adult content.
- Browsing behaviour is not easy to track/report.
- Explosive growth in mobile ad banners:
- Measurement: Changing from behavioural information to actual spend and footfall.
Translation: The operators are trying to add their advertising as top-and-tail to video clips, add wrap arounds to mobile web pages and include interstitial advertising across the board.
The effect: Gee – do you want to guess? Consumer’s will be dissatisfied with all of the interrupt. Content owners will be dissatisfied with the dilution of their message and their brand.
The prediction: The truth is that if operators just get out of the way and foster an open access to consumers they will actually increase their mobile data revenues and will be able to focus on doing what they do best ( that’s not advertising – the thing they do best is to run networks! )
Translation: Even operators are sceptical about the amount of revenue they can get from their wrap-around marketing and advertising. What I found incredibly interesting is the purported loyalty to the consumer. The fact of the matter is that operators excessive mobile data charges have done to mobile data what the Crazy Frog did to mobile content subscription services. They have destroyed trust in consumers through excessive pricing and poor expectation setting.
The prediction: Mobile network operators are moving to flat-rate mobile data – albeit slowly. And over time the operators will pull back to doing what they do best – running networks.
Translation: Ok – there are number of factors here which can apply. Firstly, the sheer volume of web banners is enormous in comparison to the number of mobile Internet or WAP banners. Secondly, I don’t have the statistics to back it up, but my sense is that consumers click text-link advertising from their mobile phones more than banners. It is not always completely obvious how to click a mobile ad banner. The mobile web experience is still a bit confusing to the average consumer. The more relevant piece is that consumers are using the mobile Internet in a far different way than the Internet they use from their home or work PC. The scope is much more narrow. And being more narrow it is easier to target relevant advertising messages. And as we know, more relevance means more likelihood for click-through.
The prediction: We are in the early days of mobile advertising and media and marketing hype has a role to play. If we never hyped a solution well beyond its actually capabilities, we wouldn’t drag enough players into the space to get to a critical mass. True – sometimes the hype is just hype. But in this case, the hype regarding click-throughs is something we can actually live with.
Translation: Well – I guess we don’t need much translation. Porn was responsible for driving the development of the VCR. Porn is responsible for driving much of the public Internet. Why shouldn’t porn drive mobile search.
The prediction: More and more we will get a better understanding of how and when people use their mobile devices to access the Internet. And when it comes to porn, we’ll talk about it less and less ( we’ll still know it – we’ll just not talk about it. )
Translation: I’ll give you 2 versions: “We don’t know how to run the equipment we have in the network.” – or – “We know exactly what consumer’s are doing but we’ll be damned if we’re going to tell anyone else.”
Prediction: As walled gardens go away we will get closer and closer to an open Internet model. One of the key pieces which has to be dealt with is the issue surrounding “Identity of Consumer”. Currently operators do not share the MSISDN of the consumer with 3rd party content owners. There are a number of concerns both legislative and commercial that are driving this. It is my belief that in time the consumer will have the option to reveal their identity to mobile Internet sites and the decision will be taken out of the hands of the operators.
Every mobile advertising supplier is currently heading for the Billions of Impressions statistic. That’s good growth over what they had previously. But what does it really mean?
Translation: 1Bn ad impressions at an average CPM of €20 means total revenues of €20M. The problem is that 2M CPM’s for inventory is just not very much when it comes to servicing the advertising requirments of major brands. There still isn’t enough inventory to get onto the radar of the media buyers and planners.
Prediction: Over time the CPM will continue to erode even as the volume goes up. And until the industry can develop hard metrics for ROI it will be difficult for the media buyers and planners to include mobile in their offerings.
Translation: One of the amazing things about consumers who access the mobile Internet is that you can actually drive foot fall into your stores and directly impact revenue.
Prediction: Over time there will be a greater understanding of how this can happen and various new marketing and advertising solutions will come to market to allow brands to measure the true effectiveness of their mobile marketing. Of course, as was pointed out by another panellist – some brands are simply overwhelmed at the thought of this much data and have no way to cope. These brands will revert back to the simplistic age, gender and simple demographic data and never ask for anything more.
Buzz Phrases:
What seminar would be worth its price of entry without a few new buzz phrases:
- Taste Makers – These are individuals that set future trends
- Social Athletes – These are individuals that communicate broadly within their communities.
- First Card in the Wallet – This refers to a banking industry concept: As a consumer goes from child to adult, it is important to be the first card ( credit/debit ) in their wallet. The first card is the earliest relationship which will have the longest and deepest relationship.
There was one company on the panel that largely dominated the conversation and I’m going to expressly fail to mention them here by name as I don’t think they have earned it yet. The company is taking a new approach to an old model of advertising supported calls and texts. They swear that all of their focus groups and studies show that this will work. I however, am a complete skeptic. Consumers may be willing to tolerate advertising in return for free calls and texts – so long as the advertising is relevant. But the bigger question is this – Will they just tune it out – or will it actually affect their shopping and buying? The jury is still out and I’m perfectly happy to be proven wrong.
Ok – that’s a wrap for the Chinwag Mobile Metamorphosis seminar in February. Would love to have your thoughts!
